Higher Rates, Fewer Bidding Wars: Four Lenders on How Buyers Win Right Now
Thursday, October 8, 2026
The morning in pictures
15 photos · 3 moments
Good morning6 photos
The lender panel6 photos
Behind the camera3 photos
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Photographs by Scott Capen, Scott Capen Photography, and Harv Balu (Behind the camera).
Four lenders took the front of the room on October 8: Anna Ruotolo of Synergy One Lending, Susan Munkner of Chase, Ali Baradar of Bank of America and Winston Wang of Patelco Credit Union. Vice Chair Tom Bigley ran the morning and read the questions Susan had sent ahead. With mortgage rates at their highest in years, all four said the same thing in different ways: no one in the room can move the rate, so work on what you can move, because the buyers who are out there right now are getting deals done, often without a fight.
The numbers on the board
Anna opened with the slide everyone was bracing for: the 10-year Treasury at about 5.28% and a 30-year mortgage at 7.58%, both of which "might even be a little bit higher than that right now." The bond market, she said, is all over the board. "We can't affect it, so don't let it affect you." Stay focused on your activity, because there are still buyers and still wonderful properties to sell.
Ali Baradar took oil. When gas goes up, so does everything else, he said, and the market is reacting to oil prices and to the unrest in the Middle East. He expects things to change, hopefully by November or December. His own first condo carried a 10.99% rate. In 26 years in the business he has sold loans at 11.99% and seen 13.99%. His advice: get the client in the house, and remember that when rates come down, prices go up.
Susan Munkner walked through the 10-year, the number market-savvy Tri-Cities clients will ask about. Mortgage rates are as high as they have been since about 2023, and the 10-year is as high as it has been since 2007. The good news is that the gap between the two is smaller than it has been, so "it could be worse": a move like this could have sent rates back to the 8% of the years after COVID. Unemployment, she said, is confusing: people looking, people dropping out, and fewer people moving from company to company.
The Tri-Cities by the numbers
Winston Wang pulled the third quarter for Fremont, Union City and Newark. Single-family medians were close across all three: $1.59 million in Fremont, $1.38 million in Union City and $1.35 million in Newark.
See the numbers
| Item | Single-family homes | Condos and townhomes |
|---|---|---|
| Fremont | $1.59M | $750K |
| Union City | $1.38M | $593K |
| Newark | $1.35M | $820K |
The biggest drop from a year earlier was in Fremont: about $124,000 (about 7%) for single-family homes and about $130,000 (about 15%) for condos and townhomes. Union City rose a little, and Newark's single-family median fell about 4%. And most buyers are still borrowing.
See the numbers
| Part | Share |
|---|---|
| FinancedGovernment-backed loans (FHA and VA) were about 2% of the loans. | 80% |
| Cash | 15% |
| Other or not reported | 5% |
Susan turned one of Winston's numbers around. A share like 56% or 42% of homes selling over asking sounds big, she said, but 42% over asking means 58% sold at or below it. That is the opening for buyers: the price is the part that stays with them. Overpay, and the property tax is higher for as long as they own it and they get less when they sell. Buy under market, and that advantage lasts the life of the home. About a third of homes, the panel said, end up taking a price cut from the original asking price, so look at how long a listing has sat and what has already come off it.
How a buyer and a seller can both win
Susan's example was a real listing, address withheld "to protect the guilty." It came on in late July at $1.49 million and took a $70,000 price cut in September, to $1.42 million, right around the median. Here is what the cut did, and what a smarter offer does:
- July: $1.49 million with 20% down at 6.85% was $7,811 a month.
- Today, after the cut: $1.42 million at 7.58% is $8,005 a month, $195 more than July even with $70,000 off.
- Offer $1.44 million and ask for $20,000 back: the credit buys the rate down to 7.00%, and the payment is $7,664, $146 less than in July.
The seller nets the same either way: $20,000 more on the price, $20,000 back to the buyer.
See the numbers
| Item | Change from July, per month |
|---|---|
| Wait for the price cut$1.42 million at 7.58%: $8,005 a month | +$195 |
| Offer $1.44 million, take a $20,000 creditThe credit buys the rate down to 7.00%: $7,664 a month | -$146 |
Anna added a tool for listings that have sat: instead of cutting the price, offer a credit toward closing costs that the buyer can use for a 2-1 buydown. With a 7.25% note rate, the rate is 5.25% in year one and 6.25% in year two, then 7.25% for the rest of the loan. On her example that saves the buyer $790 a month the first year and $404 the second. Spend the same money on a price cut, and the payment drops by only $81. The buyer still qualifies at the full note rate, and can refinance during those two years with no penalty. It also takes some of the sting out for the seller, she said: you are offering an incentive, not cutting the price again. Or, as someone put it from the side of the panel, $15,000 is a lot less than $70,000.
See the numbers
| Item | 2-1 buydown | Price cut of the same amount |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $790 | $81 |
| Year 2 | $404 | $81 |
| Year 3 on | $0 | $81 |
Susan closed the slides with what the lenders see. Applications get quieter when rates go up, but the buyers who stay in are winning. A year ago her clients made offers on three or four homes before one was accepted. Now most are accepted on the first try, without multiple offers, and at lower prices than they would have paid in July.
How are buyers winning?
Tom read the first question: how are the clients who close winning in this market?
- Anna: they are serious. They are pre-approved, they ask for credits toward closing costs or a lower price, and they close in 21 days or less, because that is what listing agents want right now. One of her buyers went in at full price with no contingencies and was countered $30,000 over, as the only offer. Her rule for buyers: if you can afford to buy, buy.
- Susan: more contracts come with concessions from the start. One buyer got $5,000 up front and another $5,000 after inspections, because the seller did not want to go back on the market. Her buyers are usually the only offer, and one went from offer to contract overnight.
- Ali: the agents who win are the ones who learn the programs. Each lender on the panel has its own, he said, from Synergy One's 2-1 buydown to Bank of America's grants of about $17,000 for buyers who qualify, which many agents never mention. His cautionary tale: a condo buyer whose lender backed out 13 days into a 20-day escrow over problems with the homeowners association, which the listing agent (also the buyer's agent) had not known about. The seller gave seven more days, Bank of America already had the project approved, and the loan closed in 14 days.
- Winston: put the buyer's agent, the loan officer and the listing agent on the same team, and talk. A loan officer calling the listing agent can put that agent at ease. The biggest problem in a deal is a surprise.
Condos, appraisals and contingencies
The second question was about condo and appraisal changes, and the panel's advice was simple: do not write super short contingencies right now.
- Anna: condo reserve requirements go up again in January, and a new appraisal form is arriving (the Uniform Appraisal Dataset, version 3.6). Appraisers may charge more for it. If there is a sign in the driveway saying the balconies are coming down, hint: the condo is likely non-warrantable. On any condo listing, get the master insurance policy, and share everything about the project with the lender up front.
- Ali: not every lawsuit sinks a condo loan. A suit from someone who thought the stairs were too narrow is personal, not structural, and can be waived. But check for litigation at the start, get the HOA documents early, and on a condo, ask for 30 days rather than 20. Third-party condo reports can take six or seven days on their own, and the buyer pays for them.
- Susan: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have dropped the shortened "limited review," so lenders need the full package: budget, reserves, questionnaire. HOAs are slow to answer, so ask your lender early whether the project is already approved (many keep a database), and give the loan contingency at least 10 days.
- Winston: new construction condos take longer, because the documents come in over time and keep changing. Bring your loan officer in early.
The buyer who wants to wait for rates
The last question was the one every agent hears.
- Winston: when rates drop, prices go up. Would you rather have the lower rate or the lower price? Run the numbers on the neighborhood, see if the payment fits, and remember home buying is half numbers and half emotion.
- Ali: put the numbers in front of them, for example 5.875% against 6.5%, next to what $100,000 or $200,000 more in price does to the payment. Waiting for a lower rate means competing with five other buyers later. A refinance is always there.
- Susan: show them the rate history chart, and ask why. A couple earning $800,000 a year had fixed their budget at $5,000 a month because they paid $4,000 in rent. Usually the real fear is making a mistake. Overpaying is a problem you cannot fix later; a high rate you can, with a refinance. And waiting has not paid: buyers who held out at 6% in February are looking at about 7.5% now.
- Anna: once a buyer falls in love with a house, the rate stops mattering. She just did two buy-before-you-sell loans for couples who were not even shopping until they fell in love with a house. The job is to make buyers comfortable enough to fall in love.
From the floor came the question of what a 2-1 buydown costs. It depends on two things, Anna said: the loan amount and the rate, so the list price alone cannot tell you. Susan added that a permanent buydown works too, in steps (an eighth, a quarter, a half point), however far the buyer can negotiate.
Around the room
- Super Tour: Sirisha Sinha of SKYE Residentials had 34480 Alberta Terrace in Ardenwood's Forest Park, and Theresa Odisio Rogoff of Compass had 38620 Chapman Court. Vino Pari of Doorlight presented 41519 Erma Avenue in Mission San Jose. There was no Super Tour drawing this week, so go on tour and get those sheets signed.
- Women's Council of REALTORS® Alameda County: Dianna Novela of Novella Real Estate, the chapter's events director and 2027 president-elect, announced Wine, Chocolate & Friends at Three Steves Winery on Wednesday, October 14, and the installation on Friday, November 13, at Vineyard View in Livermore (sponsorships open). She also teaches "Beyond Google: How to Get Recommended by AI" at Bay East on October 14 at 1 PM.
- Old Republic Title: a horror-stories webinar on title and escrow, October 15, 11 AM to noon, on Teams.
Watch it
Harv Balu filmed the meeting for the council's Facebook Live, on a camera provided by Tom Bigley. This opens where the four lenders introduce themselves and runs to the last question. Press play to watch it right here, pop it out anytime, or watch it on YouTube.
Beyond the panel: the numbers behind the conversation
The panel covered a lot in 36 minutes. This part picks up where it left off: the latest figures, checked against public sources after the meeting, and what they mean for the conversations agents are having with clients right now. None of it is lending, tax or legal advice.
The panel's read holds up well. A few numbers have moved since the slides were made, and a few are worth putting in context.
Rates: higher than the panel's slide said
Freddie Mac's weekly average hit 7.40% on October 8, the highest since November 2023, so closer to three years than two. Individual quotes, like the panel's 7.58% or the 7.49% the Mortgage Bankers Association tracks, often run a bit above Freddie Mac's average. The 10-year Treasury is the bigger story: it closed at 5.31% on October 5, its highest since 2002, not just since 2007.
See the numbers
| Week of | 30-year fixed mortgage | 10-year Treasury yield |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 8 | 6.16% | 4.17% |
| Jan 15 | 6.06% | 4.18% |
| Jan 22 | 6.09% | 4.24% |
| Jan 29 | 6.10% | 4.24% |
| Feb 5 | 6.11% | 4.27% |
| Feb 12 | 6.09% | 4.20% |
| Feb 19 | 6.01% | 4.07% |
| Feb 26 | 5.98% | 4.06% |
| Mar 5 | 6.00% | 4.04% |
| Mar 12 | 6.11% | 4.15% |
| Mar 19 | 6.22% | 4.25% |
| Mar 26 | 6.38% | 4.34% |
| Apr 2 | 6.46% | 4.37% |
| Apr 9 | 6.37% | 4.32% |
| Apr 16 | 6.30% | 4.29% |
| Apr 23 | 6.23% | 4.29% |
| Apr 30 | 6.30% | 4.36% |
| May 7 | 6.37% | 4.41% |
| May 14 | 6.36% | 4.43% |
| May 21 | 6.51% | 4.58% |
| May 28 | 6.53% | 4.53% |
| Jun 4 | 6.48% | 4.46% |
| Jun 11 | 6.52% | 4.53% |
| Jun 18 | 6.47% | 4.46% |
| Jun 25 | 6.49% | 4.47% |
| Jul 2 | 6.43% | 4.42% |
| Jul 9 | 6.49% | 4.52% |
| Jul 16 | 6.55% | 4.57% |
| Jul 23 | 6.58% | 4.60% |
| Jul 30 | 6.66% | 4.67% |
| Aug 6 | 6.69% | 4.68% |
| Aug 13 | 6.67% | 4.69% |
| Aug 20 | 6.65% | 4.68% |
| Aug 27 | 6.66% | 4.69% |
| Sep 3 | 6.71% | 4.75% |
| Sep 10 | 6.76% | 4.79% |
| Sep 17 | 6.95% | 4.98% |
| Sep 24 | 7.03% | 5.00% |
| Oct 1 | 7.28% | 5.23% |
| Oct 8 | 7.40% | 5.28% |
Why it moved: oil went from about $57 a barrel in January to about $91 with the Middle East conflict and the shipping trouble around it, gasoline is up 27% in a year, and inflation is back to 3.4%. The Federal Reserve raised rates a quarter point in September, its first increase since 2023.
Will rates fall by year-end? Ali may be right, but the forecasts do not lean that way. The Mortgage Bankers Association's October 11 forecast has the 30-year averaging 7.3% in the fourth quarter and staying above 7% through 2027, with another Fed increase possible in December. Fannie Mae's September forecast (made before the latest jump) was 6.8% for the quarter. The dates to watch: September inflation on October 14, and the Fed on October 27 and 28 and December 8 and 9. The practical read: plan for rates above 7% and treat any dip as a bonus, which is exactly why the credits and buydowns the panel described matter.
Rates in perspective
Susan's rate history chart is a good conversation, with one adjustment. Today's 7.40% is about 2.6 points above the average of the last 20 years (4.81%), which is why it feels so high to anyone who bought at 3%. Against the full record back to 1971 (7.70%), it is slightly below average, and nowhere near the 18.63% of October 1981.
See the numbers
| Item | Average 30-year rate |
|---|---|
| 1970s | 8.90% |
| 1980s | 12.71% |
| 1990s | 8.12% |
| 2000s | 6.29% |
| 2010s | 4.09% |
| 2020 to 2025 | 5.25% |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 7.40% |
| 2006 to 2025 average, 4.81% | 4.81% |
The Tri-Cities, checked
Winston's single-family numbers check out against Redfin: Fremont's median was $1.59 million, down 8.2% from a year earlier, and Newark's single-family median was $1.35 million, down 4.7%. Union City was the one city up. Redfin does not publish a combined condo and townhome median (it splits them), so his condo and townhome figures, likely straight from the MLS, are the ones to use for that.
See the numbers
| Item | Change from a year earlier |
|---|---|
| Fremont, all homes$1.37 million | -6.5% |
| Fremont, single-family$1.59 million | -8.2% |
| Union City, all homes$1.22 million | +2.7% |
| Newark, all homes$1.27 million | +0.3% |
| Newark, single-family$1.35 million | -4.7% |
Fremont's single-family homes still sold above asking 56.5% of the time, the panel's 56%. Across all home types the share runs about 42% to 47%. Price cuts are closer to one home in four to three in ten than one in three (Fremont townhouses are the exception, at about 35%).
See the numbers
| Item | Sold above asking | Took a price cut |
|---|---|---|
| Fremont | 47% | 29% |
| Union City | 42% | 29% |
| Newark | 42% | 25% |
The quiet change is supply. Tri-Cities listings are up 18% to 25% from a year ago, while the county's are down 7%. That works out to a little over two months of supply, still tight, but it is the leverage the panel described: fewer bidding wars and more room to ask for credits. For context, the California Association of REALTORS® had Alameda County's August single-family median at $1,285,000, up 1.3%, and only 22% of county households could afford the median home in the second quarter.
See the numbers
| Part | Share |
|---|---|
| FremontUp about 18% from a year earlier | 243 |
| Union CityUp about 25% | 61 |
| NewarkUp about 24% | 83 |
The 2-1 buydown math
Anna's numbers are right to the dollar. On a $608,000 loan at 7.25%, the buydown costs exactly what it saves, about $14,300 over two years. As a rough rule at today's rates, a 2-1 buydown costs about 2.4% of the loan, so about $32,000 on a $1.36 million loan (20% down on $1.7 million). The other side of the trade is that the price cut keeps saving after year two:
See the numbers
| After | 2-1 buydown | Price cut |
|---|---|---|
| Year 0 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 1 | $9,483 | $982 |
| Year 2 | $14,332 | $1,965 |
| Year 3 | $14,332 | $2,947 |
| Year 4 | $14,332 | $3,929 |
| Year 5 | $14,332 | $4,912 |
| Year 6 | $14,332 | $5,894 |
| Year 7 | $14,332 | $6,876 |
| Year 8 | $14,332 | $7,859 |
| Year 9 | $14,332 | $8,841 |
| Year 10 | $14,332 | $9,823 |
| Year 11 | $14,332 | $10,806 |
| Year 12 | $14,332 | $11,788 |
| Year 13 | $14,332 | $12,770 |
| Year 14 | $14,332 | $13,752 |
| Year 15 | $14,332 | $14,735 |
| Year 16 | $14,332 | $15,717 |
| Year 17 | $14,332 | $16,699 |
| Year 18 | $14,332 | $17,682 |
| Year 19 | $14,332 | $18,664 |
| Year 20 | $14,332 | $19,646 |
So the buydown wins for any buyer who refinances or sells within about 14 years, which, with rates this high, is most of them. Two limits to keep in mind: the buyer qualifies at the full note rate, and seller credits are capped by the down payment (on a Fannie Mae loan for a home the buyer will live in, 3% of the price with under 10% down, 6% with 10% to 25% down, 9% with more).
The condo rules, with dates
- The shortened review is gone. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac retired the limited (and streamlined) condo project review for loan applications dated August 3, 2026 or later. Most small projects, 10 units or fewer, can still skip project review.
- Reserves go up January 4, 2027. The HOA's budget must put at least 15% of its assessment income into reserves, up from 10%.
- The new appraisal report is required November 2, 2026. That is the Uniform Appraisal Dataset 3.6 form Anna mentioned.
- What makes a condo non-warrantable: pending litigation against the HOA (with exceptions for minor matters, as Ali said), critical repairs or deferred maintenance, more than 35% commercial space, one owner holding too many units, too little in reserves, or more than 15% of owners 60 days late on dues.
Grants and taxes, quickly
- Bank of America's grants are two programs: a Down Payment Grant of up to 3% of the price (capped at $10,000) for first-time buyers, and America's Home Grant of up to $7,500 toward closing costs or a lower rate. Together they reach $17,500, in select areas and under income limits, so check by the property's address.
- Taxes: the federal cap on deductible mortgage debt stays at $750,000 for good (California still allows $1 million). What is new is the state and local tax deduction: up to $40,400 for 2026, shrinking for incomes above about $505,000. Mortgage insurance is deductible again from 2026, but only for incomes under about $109,000. A tax professional can say what it means for a particular buyer.
The bottom line
- Plan for 7%+, and shop the payment, not the rate. A credit on a higher price beat a $70,000 price cut in Susan's example.
- Lead with a buydown credit before a price cut on a listing that has sat. It helps the buyer more in the years that matter most.
- Inventory is up about a fifth in the Tri-Cities. Buyers have more room to negotiate than they have had in years, and fewer competing offers.
- On condos, slow down. Allow 30 days, get the HOA documents and the master policy on day one, and ask the lender whether the project is already approved.
Sources: Freddie Mac, the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae, Redfin, Realtor.com, the California Association of REALTORS®, the Fannie Mae Selling Guide, Freddie Mac, Bank of America, the IRS and the Franchise Tax Board, as of October 12, 2026.
Photographs by Scott Capen, Scott Capen Photography, and Harv Balu. Video by Harv Balu, on a camera provided by Tom Bigley.
Disclaimer: This post is for general information and education only. It is not mortgage, lending, financial, tax or legal advice, and nothing in it is an offer to lend, a loan approval or a commitment to any rate or terms. Rates, programs, grants, guidelines and market figures change often and differ by lender, borrower and property. The figures here were current as of October 12, 2026, and the payment and buydown examples are illustrations only. Whether a buyer qualifies, and on what terms, is up to each lender. The panelists spoke for themselves, not for their employers or the Tri-Cities Marketing Council, and the council does not endorse any lender, loan product or program. Before making a decision, talk with a licensed loan officer, a tax professional or an attorney about your own situation.
The conversation